Executive Summary

Modern portfolio construction often mistakes "deal volume" for "risk mitigation." Predict Ventures’ PV1 engine utilizes Quantitative Correlation Avoidance to build portfolios optimized for the Investibility Threshold. By benchmarking 15,000 data points—including Infrastructure Dependency and Regulatory Velocity—across disparate sectors, we help investors bypass the 90% failure rate by ensuring that a single macro-economic shift doesn't compromise the entire fund.

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Moving Beyond "Spray and Pray"

For decades, the standard venture thesis was "Spray and Pray": write 100 small checks, accept a 90% failure rate, and hope one "Dragon" returns the fund. But in the 2026 capital environment, this is no longer a viable strategy for Alpha. When capital is expensive, the cost of those 90 failures erodes the gains of the few winners.

The problem isn't the number of bets; it’s the Correlation. If you invest in ten different AI startups that all rely on the same foundational model or the same cloud infrastructure, you haven't diversified. You’ve simply multiplied your exposure to a single point of failure.

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The PV1 Strategy: Quantitative Correlation Avoidance

Predict Ventures uses the PV1 engine to ensure that your portfolio is mathematically resilient. We look at the "hidden threads" that link startups across seemingly unrelated industries:

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1. The Infrastructure Dependency Check

We analyze the "Platform Layer" of every potential investment.

• The Metric: We track the Systemic Concentration of your portfolio. If 60% of your companies are dependent on the same hardware supply chain or the same API ecosystem, your risk is concentrated, not diversified.
• The Insight: PV1 identifies "Infrastructure Arbitrage"—ensuring that your portfolio companies are distributed across different technological "moats" so that a disruption in one layer doesn't trigger a cascading failure.

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2. Temporal & Regulatory Diversification

Diversification isn't just about what you buy, but when the market is ready for it.

• The Metric: We map your portfolio against Regulatory Velocity. We ensure a balance between "Regulatory Tailwinds" (immediate growth) and "Regulatory Frontiers" (long-term moonshots).
• The Insight: A portfolio that hits its Investibility Threshold at different intervals (Temporal Staggering) provides more consistent liquidity and reduces the risk of being forced to raise "down-rounds" during a single market contraction.

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3. Functional DNA Mapping

Even across different sectors (e.g., Fintech vs. AgTech), startups often fail for the same functional reasons—usually a lack of Team Synarchy.

• The Metric: We analyze the Founder DNA across your entire portfolio.
• The Insight: If all your founders have the same "Visionary" profile but lack "Builders," your portfolio has a structural weakness. PV1 helps you balance your bets by identifying teams with different execution styles, ensuring your fund has a mix of "Market Creators" and "Operational Scalers."

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The 2026 Mandate: From Volume to Precision

We define a successful portfolio as one where the Cumulative Probability of Success is higher than the sum of its parts. By processing 15,000 data points through our predictive models, we move the investor from "hoping for a hit" to "engineering a return."

In 2026, Alpha is found in the gaps between the data points. True diversification is the only free lunch in finance—but only if you have the data to see where the lunch is served.

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